(Source-Espn.sports.com) Saturday’s Strikeforce Nashville card marks another potential watershed moment for the San Jose, Calif.-based promotion and its ongoing attempt to snatch a piece of the UFC’s pie.
The event, which will be held in Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena, features not only the debut of prized free-agent acquisition Dan Henderson but also three cash-money title bouts that will air live on CBS. Indeed, this could serve as an historic night for the fledgling organization.
One way or another, the violence on tap will make it a memorable night for fans, as the flamboyant Shinya Aoki makes his long-awaited stateside debut in a lightweight title bout with the hyperactive Gilbert Melendez. The light heavyweight crown will also be up for grabs, as Muhammed Lawal attempts to complete his improbable rise against offensive mastermind Gegard Mousasi. Rounding out the trio of title fights, middleweight champion and grappling kingpin Jake Shields will defend his belt against the aforementioned Henderson. The bout could set the stage for Henderson to make moves all over the Strikeforce weight ladder.
Jake Shields currently owns the Strikeforce middleweight strap, but is it only a matter of time before it belongs to Dan Henderson?
Strikeforce middleweight championship
Jake Shields versus Dan Henderson
The breakdown: Henderson, the UFC expatriate, has his sights set on the middleweight strap that eluded him in the Octagon by taking out his frustrations on Shields, the incumbent Strikeforce middleweight champion. Retaining his gold and preserving a four-year winning streak will be the biggest test of the underdog champion’s career.
The nucleus of Shields’ game centers on grounding his opponents and working them over from top control — a tall order against Henderson, who remains one of the division’s premier wrestlers. Shields has proven himself a solid grappler from the guard, but Henderson seems far more likely to force the champion into a brawl than a grappling match. That’s where the fight gets complicated for Shields, as his fragile chin and notoriously substandard striking make a tempting target for Henderson’s overhand right.
Even if Shields manages a takedown, he hasn’t proven to be an instant tapout machine against competent grapplers, and his recent bout with Jason “Mayhem” Miller exposed some serious deficiencies in his game. Shields has issues retaining his base and holding position against knowledgeable grapplers, a problem only exacerbated by his poor conditioning and history of riding out decisions against opponents he can’t easily overwhelm on the mat.
Henderson’s submission defense may not be airtight, but he will remain in control of where this fight goes. He can stuff Shields’ takedowns and stalk him all over the cage, his right hand cocked like Dirty Harry’s .44 Magnum. This doesn’t seem like the kind of fight in which Shields would have much interest.
The bottom line: This will be ugly. Henderson will force Shields to stand his ground on his feet, much the same way he did with Michael Bisping at UFC 100. As soon as Shields complies, he’ll end up with a fist-sized impression in his face.
Muhammed Lawal has undeniable skills, but he’s considered a prospect for a reason — he may not be ready for a fighter of Gerard Mousasi’s caliber.
Strikeforce light heavyweight championship
Gegard Mousasi versus Muhammed Lawal
The breakdown: This stands as perhaps the most intriguing title fight of the three in the Strikeforce Nashville lineup, as Mousasi and Lawal have emerged as the only serious light heavyweight contenders outside the UFC umbrella. While Lawal, a gifted wrestling convert, remains very much a prospect, the dearth of quality light heavyweights in Strikeforce has made this matchup an inescapable necessity.
To label Lawal a prospect at this point, however, serves only as a reminder of how much more improvement can be expected from him. A talented boxer and one of the best wrestlers in MMA, he can give Mousasi problems he’s unaccustomed in dealing with. That said, Mousasi has proven himself the kind of multifaceted offensive threat that gives developing fighters the most trouble.
The key will be how Lawal approaches Mousasi. His best bet would be to take down and control the Armenian dynamo, but doing so successfully for 25 minutes seems a bit daunting. In addition, Lawal has never been shy about testing out his striking, and although he can crack like few others, Mousasi will enter the cage as the more seasoned and versatile striker. Even if Lawal finds success on the feet, he has to hope he can put the lights out on Mousasi quickly; the longer this fight goes on, the more it favors the champion’s offensive brilliance.
Few prospects with Lawal’s upside exist in today’s game, and it would have been nice if Strikeforce had kept this matchup from happening until he had capitalized on more of that enormous potential. As it stands, Lawal will enter as a live underdog facing a big differential in overall skill and experience, neither of which play well for a fighter who has yet to face someone anywhere near Mousasi’s level.
The bottom line: If nothing else, Lawal will make this difficult for Mousasi, and his wrestling chops could win him a round or two. Unfortunately, winning a round or two doesn’t mean a lot in a five-round fight, unless Douglas Crosby happens to be charged with scoring it. Expect Mousasi to snatch hold of a submission after a rough start in a bout that will once again prove why prospects need to be handled with great care.
Want the complete Strikeforce main card preview? Sherdog has you covered.
Strikeforce lightweight championship
Gilbert Melendez versus Shinya Aoki
The breakdown: As soon as Frankie Edgar and Douglas Crosby put an end to B.J. Penn’s UFC lightweight title reign, the bout between Aoki and Melendez took on a whole new significance. Melendez’s Strikeforce lightweight strap may not be the only prize on the line, as the winner could become the world’s top fighter at 155 pounds.
The battle for lightweight supremacy hinges almost entirely on Melendez’s chances of keeping his limbs and airways far away from Aoki’s sadistic submissions. An entirely unique grappler in modern MMA, Aoki’s game employs a variety of advanced and unconventional techniques opponents are simply unaccustomed to dealing with. A fine example of this was his technical submission win over Mizuto Hirota via hammerlock, a technique that requires the grip strength of a gorilla to employ in the arm-breaking fashion Aoki so easily did.
For all of Aoki’s preternatural ability on the mat, his striking remains almost comically inept, and he has a well-known distaste for punishment in a sport that regularly eats the timid alive. That plays into Melendez’s style, as his tremendous work rate and newfound love for the jab make him ideally suited to outwork Aoki from afar — a range where all of Aoki’s foibles are on full display.
The problem for Melendez in maintaining that strategy is twofold: Knockout power is not a weapon in his arsenal, and although it doesn’t take a tactical nuke to send Aoki looking for a way out, the longer it takes Melendez to hurt him, the more time the Japanese star has to take this fight to the mat. Melendez will enter the cage as the better wrestler by a fair margin, but Aoki’s ability to crowd opponents and force fights to the ground has been underrated. Throughout his career, Aoki has managed to get fights on the floor by relying on his ability to effectively pull guard and create scrambles.
That leads to the question of whether Melendez can break a career-long habit. Whenever someone has tried to take him down, his response has been to counter by reversing into top control. That represents a one-man suicide pact in a fight with Aoki, as Melendez lacks the level of grappling necessary to contain him on the mat. Keeping Aoki upright long enough to lay him out or ride out the closing bell seems like an obvious strategy, but executing it will take the discipline of a monk, and Melendez has never looked like a guy who can rock a proper Friar Tuck cloak.
The bottom line: Aoki has been a source of great debate in the MMA community, and it’s hard not to knock a guy who acts like a trauma victim whenever he gets fouled. A soccer player’s flair for the dramatic won’t do Aoki any favors in this fight, but Melendez’s willingness to enter into scrambles will ultimately doom him. The man in the rainbow-colored pants will snatch another submission and, with it, lightweight supremacy.